Curse

tmakinen · Mar 18, 2008, 10:34 AM // 10:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzzer

Lockpicks are more profitable than keys when opening high-end normal mode chests. This even assumes you pay 1.5k for lockpicks and have 0 Lucky and Treasure Hunter.

Um, no. As listed by the table on the linked page, for a 600g chest (typical NM high end chest) your retention rate must be at least 60% if you're buying picks directly from a merchant. This corresponds to r4 in both Treasure Hunting and Lucky. With 1250g lockpicks from a reseller the break-even point goes down to 52%, or r2/r3 Treasure and Lucky (either way). If you factor in the investment to titles, the rate goes down to 42% which can be obtained through r1 in either track. Only the ludicrously expensive (for their actual worth) 1250g NM chests are always more profitable to be opened with picks.

I should know since I'm the original author of the table

Buzzer · Mar 18, 2008, 11:03 AM // 11:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmakinen

Only the ludicrously expensive (for their actual worth) 1250g NM chests are always more profitable to be opened with picks.

That's what I meant by high end.

I know how the table works.

tmakinen · Mar 18, 2008, 11:56 AM // 11:56

Then you're getting confused with terminology. Everything from 600g up and including is 'high end' by ANet's own definition. If you really want you could speak about 'highest end' chests but then you'd have to define it separately anyway.

Antheus · Mar 18, 2008, 02:26 PM // 14:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

Given enough time (possibly billions of years), if you put a big-enough group of monkeys in front of keyboards and make them type, they'll eventually write a book by a famous litterature author (he used the French author Proust).

Internet has proven this to be incorrect

Kattar · Mar 18, 2008, 02:29 PM // 14:29

No, statistics do not lie.

And I don't mean your statistics. I mean statistics in general. Those percentages are there for a reason.

Unless you just think Anet is lying to us. <.< >.> Conspiracy theory much?

Fril Estelin · Mar 18, 2008, 02:45 PM // 14:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antheus

Internet has proven this to be incorrect

Give Internet a billion years, and I'm convinced (since there's no proof) that it'll generate works greater than everything that's been written before. Of course if we can manage to still exist in a billion years. And maybe then the OP will definitely be convinced of lockpick retain rates accurateness!

HawkofStorms · Mar 18, 2008, 05:03 PM // 17:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

Give Internet a billion years, and I'm convinced (since there's no proof) that it'll generate works greater than everything that's been written before. Of course if we can manage to still exist in a billion years. And maybe then the OP will definitely be convinced of lockpick retain rates accurateness!

Actually, math and physics has proven that "a thousand monkeys writting hamlet theory wrong."
My physics major friend actually had a homework assignment that was that problem (for quantim mechanics to gain a better understand of "really big and small numbers"). It was something along the lines of, if 10,000 monkeys randomly type on keyboards (ignoring puncutation and capital/lower case letters and numbers) 1 letter every second from now untill the end of time (the predicted time when all protons in the universe will decay, which was some given number of years [which then had to be converted into seconds]) what were the odds that they would type out Hamlet?

The correct answer to the problem was still something like 1^-80 % (ie, the probability that it would be done, even if you were given the entire history of the universe to do it).

Kazza · Mar 18, 2008, 05:16 PM // 17:16

sorry to differ and to conclude my input on this but 79% means 79 out of 100because percentage is based on the 100 number there fore your quote to open up 1000/500 chests to gain the correct percentage frankly does not equate in any terms numerically

Djynn · Mar 18, 2008, 05:57 PM // 17:57

As a player thats been around for over 30 months i do have some questions about this lockpick issue aswell.

Sorry to say i've seen the reactions of some of the ppl and to be honest i'm a bit shocked, not that i want to get on a bad foot with anyone, but here's the way i see it.

First of all there's ppl that have reacted which have been around for a longer period, meaning:

ppl that have had the benefit of getting their title during the period that chests were still fixed.

Ok guys might be nice for us to have an advantage on other ppl but:

- chests are random pops now.
- not all chests are classed as high end (fe like the proph. desert).
- new ppl want to get their title aswell you know:-)

Second:

I wonder why you are calculating statistically, meaning:

- it only works if you use the same startingpoint, most ppl open chests while they are ingame on different locations.
- it only works on a fixed number of chests being 100 cause anet uses a %.
- there is more than one % on chests determined where you are ingame opening a chest, why can't there just be one % for Nm and Hm, start by asking yourselves that question.
- Does anyone really know what anet's calculation is, cause it doesn't make sence.

i could say here i got r4 lucky, r4 chest, r4 id.

But and i opened now more than 1200 chests here goes:

We were with 2 ppl:

i kept over 84% while the person that was with me broke over half, she's complained about it, anet's response: its all down to luck.

I don't think its got anything to do with luck, i even retain in Hm over 30 % when I shouldn't be doing it.

Just a reminder:

what determines the retention of a lockpick ?

- random possibility of a chest being there?
- your location and presence on a location (time you play and have or have not been on somewhere ingame?)
-your chest title?
-your lucky title?
-the number of ppl in your team (the average of the teamplayers?)

there could be more %, i dunno, but anet doesn't seem to be willing to tell us mere mortals what is actually their calculation.

I think the calculation will always be wrong cause its based on what was and not on what GW is now.

-! randomness

Fril Estelin · Mar 18, 2008, 06:37 PM // 18:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Djynn

anet doesn't seem to be willing to tell us mere mortals what is actually their calculation.

On the Official GW Wiki maintained by Anet, the formula is clearly stated:
http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Lockpick

P.S. to HawkofStorms: in the statistics course, you: 1) don't care about the rules of physics; 2) have an unlimited supply of monkeys (implied by 1).

(it's mostly a rhetorical argument, not one to take seriously, at least not more than what a % represents since it's nothing really concrete)

GForce9x · Mar 18, 2008, 07:13 PM // 19:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kazza

sorry to differ and to conclude my input on this but 79% means 79 out of 100because percentage is based on the 100 number there fore your quote to open up 1000/500 chests to gain the correct percentage frankly does not equate in any terms numerically

True, but 79/100 = 790/1000 =7900/10000 = 395/500 = 3950/5000 etc. etc.
Percent is derived from 'per one-hundred', but as far as statistics are concerned, you need to have a large enough sample size in order for the results to be significant. One day you might open 100 chests and retain 30 picks. The next day you might open another 100 and retain 80. Whenever you are sampling you are going to get variation and some rare cases of extreme outliers, but over the long haul (significant sample size), it will all average out to what it should be.

For example, if you do a survey of Coca-Cola vs. Pepsi on 5 random people and 4 of them say they prefer Coke, would it be safe to say that 80% (4/5 = 80/100) of the population prefers Coke?

Although 100 seems like a lot as far as time/gold spent, it is nowhere near enough to give you an accurate reading.

GForce9x · Mar 18, 2008, 07:15 PM // 19:15

I don't know why all the bickering. 63.9% of all statistics are made up anyways.

Kazza · Mar 18, 2008, 07:24 PM // 19:24

Gforce u may have a point there but it still remains that overall I know I break 1/2 picks on chests opened in normal mode which tells me something is not correct and does not deem the 79% chance operative word chance the game tells me I have to retain picks

HawkofStorms · Mar 18, 2008, 07:25 PM // 19:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

P.S. to HawkofStorms: in the statistics course, you: 1) don't care about the rules of physics; 2) have an unlimited supply of monkeys (implied by 1).

(it's mostly a rhetorical argument, not one to take seriously, at least not more than what a % represents since it's nothing really concrete)

I know, which is why I found that to be such a hillarious homework problem to actually have to do.

Diddy bow · Mar 18, 2008, 07:30 PM // 19:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by GForce9x

I don't know why all the bickering. 63.9% of all statistics are made up anyways.

Im sooooo quoting that :P

Anyways, a few people having bad luck with lockpicks is bound to happen.

Djynn · Mar 18, 2008, 07:34 PM // 19:34

statistically how many ppl started playing GW after:

Year 1
Year 2
Year 3

Can you add a % or a promille to that one?

Fril Estelin · Mar 18, 2008, 07:34 PM // 19:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

I know, which is why I found that to be such a hillarious homework problem to actually have to do.

Yeah, next you're going to have to set up a real experiment: 1) go to 5 zoos and gather 10,000 monkeys; 2) buy 10,000 keyboards wired to a big fat server; 3) write the program to run the crazy experiment; 4) start counter until 1 billion years

So the real question is: will you reach your real lockpick retention rate (provided your stats don't change) before they write 1984 (rather than Hamlet)?

P.S.: has anyone thought of what could happen to the lockpick retention rate if your statistics change? I mean the lockpick broken counter may not be reinitialised and then a shifting subroutine may activate to try to adapt to the change.
/end of geeky mode

Tenebrae · Mar 18, 2008, 07:46 PM // 19:46

Retention rate is BS , its just a number , only based on player lvl , TH title and Lucky title . Is not based on the chests u opened or u r going to open , its plain stupid to think "hey , today im gonna open 100 chests , my rate says im gonna retain 56 lockpicks ! yeeeee" .... sorry to break ur dream but hell no.
I think it goes like this , go open a chest , u press "use lockpick" button , a stupid unseen number is affected by Random function and voilá ... equal or below ur % ? u retain , if not blam , lockpick broken , end of story.

PD: Dreaming is cheap , lockpicks most of the times are not.

Talarian · Mar 18, 2008, 07:57 PM // 19:57

I think some people are still confused here. When it says you have a retain rate of 49%, that does not meant that the system is counting your next 100 picks, and randomly assigning 49 of them to retain.

Rather, there will be a random number generator somewhere in the system, and that number will then be put through the equation, one of the terms of which being your retain rate. The result of the equation will then be compared to an internal table, which will state whether or not the pick is actually retained. Each time you use a pick a new random number is generated. Thus, a change in your statistics will only have the affect of increasing your future pick's retention chances.

The problem with statistics though is that in order to get true values for things, you'd have to have an infinite number of observations. That's why people use tools such as regression analysis, confidence intervals and the like, so that they can say they are 90% sure there result is correct, or that it lies within given boundaries. STATISTICS IS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE.

If this lockpick thing really does bother you that much, I strongly suggest that you look into statistics, it really isn't as hard as it seems at first.

Sol Deathgard · Mar 18, 2008, 08:17 PM // 20:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomas.knbk

18 chests is not quite enough to draw any conclusion from.

ok how about this then...
last week I ranked up in Treasure & Lucky

Before my retention rate was 58%
I could fill up my inventory (which I have room for 30 items) and break 9-11 picks

Now that my retention rate is 63%
By the time I fill up my inventory (Still 30 items) I have broken 15-20 picks

This is not a one time thing, I was Chest running with 58% for about a month before I ranked up to 63% last week & have seen the number of picks I keep drop instead of rise. Maybe some kinda bug was introduced during the last update that made the retention rate actually the break rate instead since I ranked up about the time of the last update.

Whatever it is, this needs to be fixed, or there is really no reason for us to be using picks anymore.